The evidence suggests that he's to blame, but let's be careful not to 'jump to conclusions'. He may have a good explanation for what happened.
At this point, his victory seems to be a 'foregone conclusion'. [=his victory seems certain; there seems to be no doubt that he will win]
Most people felt that the outcome of the trial was a 'foregone conclusion'. [=they felt sure that the trial would end in a certain way]
(..) here this morning. Well, I would report the theft right away. You know, she was so snotty yesterday when I asked her... Whoa, whoa, whoa! Let's not jump to any conclusions, OK? - You don't just level a charge of theft against somebody. - Yes, I'd like to report a theft. - Shh, Inez, no! (..)2011 Midnight in Paris